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OIL: Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Plummets

OIL
BulletEnergy BulletsCommodities

Crude has sunk today amid a shrinking geopolitical risk premium. This came in response to a report from the Washington Post late yesterday evening that Israel would not target Iran’s oil and nuclear infrastructure.

  • Brent DEC 24 down 4.6% at 73.93$/bbl
  • WTI NOV 24 down 4.8% at 70.29$/bbl
  • Israeli broadcaster KAN reporting that PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant have agreed on a response to the 1 October Iranian missile strikes on Israel.
  • The Biden administration has threatened to restrict arms transfers to Israel, if it doesn’t take ‘concrete steps’ to resolve the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip within a month.
  • The crude options skews have reversed much of the move seen in early October as the market adjusts the risk premium from potential Middle East supply disruption.
  • The IEA has trimmed its 2024 oil demand growth forecast for a third month in a row as Chinese demand weighs on oil markets.
  • US crude stocks likely climbed by 1.7m bbl in the week to Oct. 11, a Platts survey showed.
  • Russia’s four-week average crude shipments edged up to a three-month high, Bloomberg said.
  • Russian oil shipments to China via the Arctic Northern Sea Route have risen to a record 12.5m bbl, according to Reuters.
  • Citi maintains a base case for Brent of $74/bbl for Q4 2024 and $65/bbl for Q1 2025, according to Bloomberg.
  • Despite Middle East tensions, the physical crude market is “showing little to no signs of turning around and remains in reasonably poor shape,” according to Sparta Commodities cited by Bloomberg.
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Crude has sunk today amid a shrinking geopolitical risk premium. This came in response to a report from the Washington Post late yesterday evening that Israel would not target Iran’s oil and nuclear infrastructure.

  • Brent DEC 24 down 4.6% at 73.93$/bbl
  • WTI NOV 24 down 4.8% at 70.29$/bbl
  • Israeli broadcaster KAN reporting that PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant have agreed on a response to the 1 October Iranian missile strikes on Israel.
  • The Biden administration has threatened to restrict arms transfers to Israel, if it doesn’t take ‘concrete steps’ to resolve the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip within a month.
  • The crude options skews have reversed much of the move seen in early October as the market adjusts the risk premium from potential Middle East supply disruption.
  • The IEA has trimmed its 2024 oil demand growth forecast for a third month in a row as Chinese demand weighs on oil markets.
  • US crude stocks likely climbed by 1.7m bbl in the week to Oct. 11, a Platts survey showed.
  • Russia’s four-week average crude shipments edged up to a three-month high, Bloomberg said.
  • Russian oil shipments to China via the Arctic Northern Sea Route have risen to a record 12.5m bbl, according to Reuters.
  • Citi maintains a base case for Brent of $74/bbl for Q4 2024 and $65/bbl for Q1 2025, according to Bloomberg.
  • Despite Middle East tensions, the physical crude market is “showing little to no signs of turning around and remains in reasonably poor shape,” according to Sparta Commodities cited by Bloomberg.