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OIL: Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Regains Ground

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Brent briefly exceeded $74/bbl before easing back after headlines suggested key OPEC+ members have begun discussions for a possible further delay to production cut unwinding.

  • Brent JAN 25 up 0.8% at 73.58$/bbl
  • WTI JAN 25 up 0.9% at 69.55$/bbl
  • According to Barak Ravid at Axios the Security Cabinet meeting to finalise approval for a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon is underway early.
  • President-elect Trump pledged to impose new tariffs on all imports from China, Mexico, and Canada when he takes office in January, potentially disrupting trade flows, Platts said.
  • Russian crude weekly shipments were up slightly from last week although the four-week average dropped to a two-month low, Bloomberg said.
  • China’s additional import quotas will offer little boost to the crude oil market according to Kpler.
  • Crude arrivals into Shandong’s teapots will likely rise in the rest of 2024 due to further import quotas according to OilChem speaking with MNI.
  • Iranian crude offer levels for China’s teapots are rising in as suppliers are wary of tightening sanctions, Platts said.
  • Kazakhstan is considering a substantial increase in oil shipments out of Turkeys BTC pipeline.
  • Oil markets will be "comfortable" this year and in 2025 without any major geopolitical escalation, according to IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol cited by Reuters.
  • Citi analysts say their supply/demand balances see no scope for OPEC+ to reverse production cuts in 2025.
  • The geopolitical risk premium priced into oil as of last week was “fairly modest” according to Goldman Sachs’ Daan Struyven, speaking to CNBC.
  • OPEC+ has a “strong case” to extend the pause to bring back voluntary cuts to as late as Q2 2025 to get a clearer market picture according to RBC’s Helima Croft.
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Brent briefly exceeded $74/bbl before easing back after headlines suggested key OPEC+ members have begun discussions for a possible further delay to production cut unwinding.

  • Brent JAN 25 up 0.8% at 73.58$/bbl
  • WTI JAN 25 up 0.9% at 69.55$/bbl
  • According to Barak Ravid at Axios the Security Cabinet meeting to finalise approval for a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon is underway early.
  • President-elect Trump pledged to impose new tariffs on all imports from China, Mexico, and Canada when he takes office in January, potentially disrupting trade flows, Platts said.
  • Russian crude weekly shipments were up slightly from last week although the four-week average dropped to a two-month low, Bloomberg said.
  • China’s additional import quotas will offer little boost to the crude oil market according to Kpler.
  • Crude arrivals into Shandong’s teapots will likely rise in the rest of 2024 due to further import quotas according to OilChem speaking with MNI.
  • Iranian crude offer levels for China’s teapots are rising in as suppliers are wary of tightening sanctions, Platts said.
  • Kazakhstan is considering a substantial increase in oil shipments out of Turkeys BTC pipeline.
  • Oil markets will be "comfortable" this year and in 2025 without any major geopolitical escalation, according to IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol cited by Reuters.
  • Citi analysts say their supply/demand balances see no scope for OPEC+ to reverse production cuts in 2025.
  • The geopolitical risk premium priced into oil as of last week was “fairly modest” according to Goldman Sachs’ Daan Struyven, speaking to CNBC.
  • OPEC+ has a “strong case” to extend the pause to bring back voluntary cuts to as late as Q2 2025 to get a clearer market picture according to RBC’s Helima Croft.