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OIL: OPEC May Return a Fraction of Cuts Amid Lengthening Markets After Q3: BNP

OIL

Tighter global oil balances are expected in Q3 2024 on seasonal demand, before weakening in Q4 with additional supplies from OPEC+ and the US, according to BNP Paribas this week cited by Bloomberg.

  • “Any additional OPEC+ barrels will however lengthen crude markets as non-OPEC supply growth can satisfy normalizing demand growth.”
  • “We don’t expect crude markets strong enough to sustain a full unwinding of the 2.2m b/d voluntary cuts by October 2025.”
  • “We expect OPEC+ will be able to bring back a fraction of its voluntary cuts,” with an increase of 500kb/d expected in 2024-2025.

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