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OIL: OPEC Revise Oil Demand Growth Lower in 2024 and 2025

OIL
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The global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 is revised down for a third consecutive month by 106kb/d to 1.9mb/d y/y but still well above the historical average of 1.4mb/d seen before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

  • The adjustment reflects actual data combined with slightly lower expectations for some regions.
  • OECD oil demand is expected to grow more than 0.1mb/d y/y in 2024 driven by OECD Americas while non-OECD oil demand is forecast to grow 1.8mb/d y/y.
  • The forecast for world oil demand growth in 2025 is also revised down by 102kb/d to 1.6mb/d y/y with growth driven by non-OECD oil demand, such as from China, Other Asia, the Middle East, and India.
  • Non-DoC liquids supply is expected to grow by 1.2mb/d y/y in 2024 driven by US, Canada, Brazil and China, unchanged from last month’s assessment. 2025 growth of 1.1mb/d y/y is mainly driven by the US, Brazil, Canada, and Norway.
  • Crude oil production by the countries participating in the DoC decreased by 0.56mb/d m/m in September to about 40.10mb/d, according to secondary sources. Iraq continued to produce above quota by 0.112kb/d and Kazakhstan by 77kb/d.

 

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The global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 is revised down for a third consecutive month by 106kb/d to 1.9mb/d y/y but still well above the historical average of 1.4mb/d seen before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

  • The adjustment reflects actual data combined with slightly lower expectations for some regions.
  • OECD oil demand is expected to grow more than 0.1mb/d y/y in 2024 driven by OECD Americas while non-OECD oil demand is forecast to grow 1.8mb/d y/y.
  • The forecast for world oil demand growth in 2025 is also revised down by 102kb/d to 1.6mb/d y/y with growth driven by non-OECD oil demand, such as from China, Other Asia, the Middle East, and India.
  • Non-DoC liquids supply is expected to grow by 1.2mb/d y/y in 2024 driven by US, Canada, Brazil and China, unchanged from last month’s assessment. 2025 growth of 1.1mb/d y/y is mainly driven by the US, Brazil, Canada, and Norway.
  • Crude oil production by the countries participating in the DoC decreased by 0.56mb/d m/m in September to about 40.10mb/d, according to secondary sources. Iraq continued to produce above quota by 0.112kb/d and Kazakhstan by 77kb/d.

 

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