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OIL: Partial Unwinding of OPEC+ Cuts No Longer Expected at June Meeting: Goldman

OIL

Goldman Sachs no longer expects a partial unwinding of the OPEC+ voluntary production cuts at the meeting on June 1 with “lower OPEC+ supply for longer.”

  • Cuts are expected to be extended although OPEC+ communication suggests no final decision has yet been made.
  • The change in view is due to a surprise rise in global inventories while an extension would support Saudi short-term profits in a higher interest-rate environment amid ambitious investment plans.
  • Saudi supply is expected to remain flat at 9mb/d in July compared with a previous forecast for an increase to 9.2mb/d.
  • A modest increase in production however “remains plausible” with pressure to raise supply due to the high spare capacity.
  • Estimated global spare capacity has increased from to 6.2mb/d to 6.5mb/d for May 2024.
  • Brent is expected remain in the $75-$90/bbl range with upside geopolitical risks and 2025 is forecast to average $82/bbl.
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