MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

US NFIB NOV SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 101.7

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Oil Prices Supported by Slower US Supply Growth in 2024: Goldman Sachs

OIL

US liquids growth is expected to slow in 2024 to 600kb/d compared to 1.4mb/d in 2023 amid ongoing capital discipline according to Goldman Sachs.

  • The Permian basin has driven all growth in US supply since early 2020 but well productivity in the key growth region is no longer increasing.
  • US remains a key short-term marginal oil producer, where flexible short-cycle private producers sit high on the global cost curve.
  • The slower US supply supports a Brent forecast of 100$/bbl in June. A 10% increase in oil price is forecast to boost US liquids supply by around 1%, or 200k b/d.
  • The US supply response to higher prices caused by any geopolitical supply shock is expected to only offset ~20-25% of initial shock and with a delay of about two quarters.
  • Physical or political barriers to accessing spare capacity are the key upside risk to oil prices despite almost 4mb/d of current OPEC spare capacity.
Energy BulletsCommoditiesUS
Energy BulletsCommoditiesUS

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