Oil Products End of Day Summary: Gasoline Cracks Up

Gasoline cracks rebounded after falling again yesterday. The US front month crack had declined from over 40$/bbl in mid-August to a low of nearly 7.4$/bbl yesterday.

• US gasoline crack up 1.3$/bbl at 8.89$/bbl
• RBOB NOV 23 up 1.1% at 2.26$/gal
• Gasoil OCT 23 up 1.7% at 906$/mt
• US ULSD crack up 2.1$/bbl at 40.78$/bbl
• US gasoline pump prices have fallen for the third straight week, according to GasBuddy, with declines on the week in all 50 states.
• OPIS reports US gasoline demand around the 8.3-8.5 million bpd range based on its latest survey figures.
• US diesel exports to Europe in October at their current pace would be the highest monthly level since August 2019, according to Bloomberg, citing Kpler data.
• Water levels at the Rhine’s key chokepoint of Kaub have fallen to their lowest level since Sep. 2022, raising barge rates and lowering navigable loading volumes.
• Peak refinery maintenance in the Middle East will reduce capacity by around 980kbpd according to FGE.
• Shell’s 310kbpd Miro refinery, the second-biggest refinery in Germany, is scheduled for maintenance in Werkteil 2 expected to start around 9 April according to Bloomberg sources
• Bayernoil’s Neustadt refinery in southern Germany has lowered output since Friday after a fire at the facility damaged a mild hydrocracker unit, which primarily produces distillates according to Argusmedia.
• Russia maintains plans for oil refining growth this year according to Interfax citing Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov. "The refining level has not fallen significantly. There has been growth since the beginning of the year," said Shulginov
• Refinery economics at current price levels remain attractive for high utilizations according to RBC. The prompt gasoline crack looks cheap by historical standards, but runs are expected to remain strong supported by a strong distillate crack as refineries do not operate in isolation by product.
• European gasoline arrivals into the US dropped 39% w/w for the seven days ended October 5 according to Bloomberg analysis of bills of lading and vessel tracking.
• OAG figures highlight China domestic flight recovery remaining firmly above 2019 levels while international recovery still languishes behind.