Oil Products Summary at European Close: Gasoline Cracks Up

Gasoline crack spreads have rebounded after falling again yesterday. The US front month crack has fallen from over 40$/bbl in mid-August to a low of nearly 7.4$/bbl yesterday.

• RBOB NOV 23 down -0.1% at 2.24$/gal
• EU Gasoline-Brent up 0.6$/bbl at 5.49$/bbl
• US gasoline crack up 0.8$/bbl at 8.4$/bbl
• US ULSD crack up 1.2$/bbl at 39.88$/bbl
• Peak refinery maintenance in the Middle East will reduce capacity by around 980kbpd according to FGE.
• India’s state owed refiner HPCL will cut diesel purchases from other domestic refiners now it has commissioned a 3mtpa hydrocracker at its Vizag refinery.
• The Panipat refinery in northern India plans a 30-45 day maintenance shutdown to a 6m tons a year crude distillation unit in November according to an Indian Oil Corp executive.
• Shell’s 310kbpd Miro refinery, the second-biggest refinery in Germany, is scheduled for maintenance in Werkteil 2 expected to start around 9 April according to Bloomberg sources
• Bayernoil’s Neustadt refinery in southern Germany has lowered output since Friday after a fire at the facility damaged a mild hydrocracker unit, which primarily produces distillates according to Argusmedia.
• Russia maintains plans for oil refining growth this year according to Interfax citing Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov. "The refining level has not fallen significantly. There has been growth since the beginning of the year," said Shulginov
• Refinery economics at current price levels remain attractive for high utilizations according to RBC. The prompt gasoline crack looks cheap by historical standards, but runs are expected to remain strong supported by a strong distillate crack as refineries do not operate in isolation by product.
• European gasoline arrivals into the US dropped 39% w/w for the seven days ended October 5 according to Bloomberg analysis of bills of lading and vessel tracking.
• OPIS reports US gasoline demand around the 8.3-8.5 million bpd range based on its latest survey figures.
• OAG figures highlight China domestic flight recovery remaining firmly above 2019 levels while international recovery still languishes behind.