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Oil Steady Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting

OIL

Crude oil is bouncing with Brent just above 100$/bbl before the OPEC+ meeting taking place later today. Concerns for oil demand growth have combined with returning Libya supply and hope that OPEC+ may agree a modest increase to crude production to bring Brent down from a peak of 108.8$/bbl last week.

  • Output is expected to either be kept unchanged for September or they will agree just a slight increase. Many members are still struggling with existing targets so any increase may not be able to be met. Saudi are unlikely to change anything unilaterally with the OPEC+ agreement in place until the end of the year.
    • Brent OCT 22 down -0.1% at 100.48$/bbl
    • WTI SEP 22 down -0.1% at 94.35$/bbl
    • Gasoil AUG 22 up 0.5% at 1019.5$/mt
    • WTI-Brent down -0.21$/bbl at -7.29$/bbl
  • The gradual fall in the crude time spreads reflects the slight easing of the supply situation but stocks are still low and spare production is still limited. The prompt Brent and WTI spreads are the lowest since mid May.
    • Brent OCT 22-NOV 22 down -0.04$/bbl at 1.86$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 22-DEC 23 down -0.12$/bbl at 8.54$/bbl
  • Gasoline and diesel cracks are holding steady this morning after API data showed small draws in inventories last night.
    • US gasoline crack up 0.5$/bbl at 34.1$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down -0.3$/bbl at 47.8$/bbl

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