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Oil Summary at European Cloee: Crude Drifts Down

OIL

Crude prices are holding losses today but have moderated their decline as the market waits for the outcomes of Middle East ceasefire talks. Continued lacklustre data from China has added to existing worries regarding crude demand.

  • Brent OCT 24 down 0.5% at 79.32$/bbl
  • WTI SEP 24 down 0.4% at 76.31$/bbl
  • Oil demand in JODI-reporting countries rose by 1.49mb/d m/m in June and up 1.7%, or 0.91mb/d, y/y. Crude oil production rose by 106kb/d m/m and was up 0.55mb/d vs June 2023.
  • Crude in floating storage globally - stationary for at least 7 days - fell to 66.26mn bbls as of August 16 according to Vortexa – down 4.1% vs 69.12mn bbls on August 9.
  • National Iranian Oil Iran raised the Iranian Light crude OSP to Asia up $0.25/bbl in September to $2.35/bbl according to Bloomberg.
  • Nigeria’s crude oil output edged up to the highest since February at 1.31mb/d in July from 1.28mb/d in June, according to data from the upstream petroleum regulatory commission.
  • Crude loadings from three western Russians ports are expected to rise to 8.3m tons, or 1.96mb/d, in August, according loading schedules compiled by Bloomberg.
  • Middle Eastern crude loadings to China rebounded in August according to Vortexa, back above 5mn bpd but overall crude demand remains well below 2023 levels.
  • Caspian Pipeline Consortium increased oil exports by around 3% y/y in January - July to 1.43 mn bpd, Reuters sources said on Monday.
  • Brent to average $80/bbl in 2025 as the oil market faces a surplus over next 18 months, according to Back of America cited by Bloomberg
  • The market has really struggled in 2024 to assess the geopolitical risk premium for the two-pronged wars impacting oil – the Ukraine war and Middle East’s tensions, Global X’s Rohan Reddy told CNBC.
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