Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Extends Gains

Crude markets extend gains after a below expected crude draw and another drop in Cushing stocks. Gasoline cracks have fallen with further weakness in demand driving an unexpected stock build.

• Brent NOV 23 up 2.8% at 96.62$/bbl
• WTI NOV 23 up 3.6% at 93.66$/bbl
• EIA Weekly US Petroleum Summary - w/w change week ending Sep 22: Crude stocks -2,169 vs Exp -600, Crude production 0
• U.S. crude stockpiles the Cushing storage hub are getting close to the operational low of 20m bbl, below which oil is difficult to remove, according to Reuters.
• The crude prompt time spread has eased back slightly after surging to a high of 1.7$/bbl earlier today reflecting the tight supplies and market expectation for a market deficit in Q4.
• Crude inventories in the European ARA region fell -1.025mbbls in the week ending 22 Sep according to the latest Genscape data.
• Saudi Aramco may raise its November OSP for Arab Light crude to Asia by 20c/bbl on the month according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of five refiners, traders.
• OIL OVER $90 PER BARREL NOT GOOD FOR INDIAN ECONOMY: OFFICIAL -bbg
• “OPEC+ looks likely to be forced to keep its current cuts in place if it wants to maintain tight market management” next year according to Eurasia Group.
• Crude/condensate exports from OPEC+ countries have been more or less stable in the first 24 days of September, except for a marked recovery in Saudi exports by about 0.7mbd from 5.3mbd to 6mbd according to Vortexa.
• Russia’s Transneft and Kazakhstan have signed an agreement on transit of Kazakh oil through Russia for 2024, Trasneft said, cited by Tass.
• BofA has raised its Brent crude oil forecast for the second half of this year to average $91/bbl, from $81/bbl previously, as the recent run up in refining margins has helped to support prices, together with the extension to OPEC+ supply cuts.
• MNI COMMODITY WEEKLY: Russian Oil Product Ban Adds to Market Tightness – Full piece here: https://enews.marketnews.com/ct/x/pjJscQCLlLgI6ag2Jh8nGQ~k1zZ8KXr-kA8x6nHWZXwptIPjO1OcQ