Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Extends Gains

Crude has extended gains through the May 29 technical resistance for the Brent August contract of $84.72/bbl amid support from better risk sentiment. A Reuters survey expects US crude stocks to have fallen by 2.3m bbl last week.

• Brent AUG 24 up 1.2% at 85.25$/bbl
• WTI JUL 24 up 1.6% at 81.62$/bbl
• The demand outlook remains uncertain with mixed data in China and a drop in refinery output by 1.8% y/y in May amid maintenance and weak margins.
• A tropical storm warning has been issued for a portion of the Western Gulf of Mexico Coast.
• The API US oil inventory data is due at 16:30ET ahead of the day delayed EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report on June 20.
• Russian seaborne crude exports ticked higher in the latest data to June 16 according to Bloomberg vessel tracking.
• Venezuela’s National Assembly has begun discussions about a Chevron proposal to extend a joint production operation with PDVSA until 2047.
• The startup of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline could help fuel Canadian oil production growth in 2024-26, according to BNEF.
• Goldman Sachs see Brent rising “modestly” to an August peak of $86/bbl amid a summer deficit, according to Bloomberg.
• Brent is forecast at $85.2/bbl in 2024 and $78.5/bbl in 2025, according to the latest OIES Oil Monthly report with an average of $86.5/bbl in H2 2024 due to stock draws through year-end.
• The Ivory Coast expects a more than threefold increase in its oil output by 2027 amid recent discoveries in its Baleine and Calao fields, according to Reuters.