Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Falls

Crude prices have traded lower during the day as the market weighs the risks to Iranian supplies from the Israel conflict against weak fuel demand ahead of the latest US Fed and BOE central bank meetings later this week.

• Brent DEC 23 down -2.7% at 88.08$/bbl
• WTI DEC 23 down -3.1% at 82.9$/bbl
• Saudi’s defense Minister Khalid bin Salman is set to visit Washington Monday to meet with senior Biden officials – as the Israel/Hamas war threatens to spill over into a wider conflict, a key factor driving oil in October.
• Saudi Arabia may pause the increase in oil prices for customers in Asia for the first time in six months according to a Bloomberg survey.
• Energy Aspects Director of Research Amrita Sen on oil prices in earlier Bloomberg TV interview: “There are no direct risks to supplies” from the Middle East crisis, “and that’s probably what’s made it very hard for oil to rally” Sen added.
• Production at Bakken Shale formation in North Dakota is likely to increase following Chevron’s acquisition of Hess, according to OilPrice.com.
• Iran has overtaken Saudi as China’s top seaborne oil supplier in October according to Kpler. Russia remains top when including pipeline. Arrivals of Iranian crude have averaged >1.8 mn bpd, a new record according to Kpler figures.
• Crude floating storage stationery for seven-days rose to 74.69mn bbls at of October 27 according to Vortexa figures, 5.8% higher than the week prior.
• Nigeria is planning to reopen its Kaduna refinery in Q4 2024, after being shut since 2018, according to Reuters citing a junior petroleum minister.
• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Sunday that his country was willing to invest in Nigeria gas. He was on another visit to the country over the weekend- his third in two years as energy security has been top of the agenda after the loss of Russian supply.
• Imports of crude oil into Shandong’s independent refineries totalled 2.09m mt in the week to Oct. 29, according to OilChem.
• China’s crude throughput is set to decline this month and for the rest of this quarter due to maintenance, softer domestic demand, narrowing oil product exports access and feedstock shortage, traders and analysts told S&P Commodity Insights.
• The North Sea combined BFOET exports are set to rise to 745kbpd in December compared with 583kbpd in November according to the latest loading schedules. The main grades are expected to load 33 cargoes in December compared to 25 in November.
• India’s BPCL has cleared all payments for Russian oil purchases at present in its latest earnings conference. It follows recent reports that Indian state refiners were facing Indian government pressure to not settle transactions in Chinese yuan.