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OIL: Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Highest Since Mid-Oct

OIL
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Crude futures are slightly higher today and are on track for their highest close since Oct. 14. Saudi Arabia’s above-expectation rise in its OSPs signalled a potential pickup in Asian demand.

  • Brent MAR 25 up 0.3% at 76.72$/bbl
  • WTI FEB 25 up 0.2% at 74.11$/bbl
  • The Brent crude options bearish skew to the puts has narrowed back to near parity with risk of a market surplus in 2025 and uncertainty over the impact of Chinese economic stimulus measures on demand and the Trump presidency on US and Iran output.
  • Saudi Arabia raised its February Arab Light OSP to Asia by $0.6/bbl to +$1.50/bbl for Asia.
  • Rising OPEC and non-OPEC supply is expected to outpace demand growth leading to an oil market surplus of 700kb/d in 2025, according to Morgan Stanley cited by Bloomberg.
  • OPEC+ has little margin for reinstating barrels this year with hard choices if they want to preserve the current $70/bbl floor in Brent, according to Harry Tchilinguirian at Onyx.
  • Iran’s observed crude and condensate exports fell to 1.66m b/d in December, Bloomberg said.
  • Iranian crude oil supply is predicted to see a modest decrease of 0.3mb/d to 3.25mb/d by Q2 2025 amid expected tighter sanctions under the Trump administration, Goldman Sachs said.
  • Libya set its Es Sider OSP for Jan at a discount of$1.70/b to Dated Brent, according to Bloomberg.
  • Kazakhstan exported 17.253m mt oil in 2024, up 4% from 2023, KazTransOil said.
  • Asia's crude oil imports showed the first annual decline since 2021 amid weak demand from China and only limited growth from India, according to LSEG data.
  • India has issued a tender seeking private companies to build and operate a 2.5m mt ton SPR at Padur in southern Karnataka state.
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Crude futures are slightly higher today and are on track for their highest close since Oct. 14. Saudi Arabia’s above-expectation rise in its OSPs signalled a potential pickup in Asian demand.

  • Brent MAR 25 up 0.3% at 76.72$/bbl
  • WTI FEB 25 up 0.2% at 74.11$/bbl
  • The Brent crude options bearish skew to the puts has narrowed back to near parity with risk of a market surplus in 2025 and uncertainty over the impact of Chinese economic stimulus measures on demand and the Trump presidency on US and Iran output.
  • Saudi Arabia raised its February Arab Light OSP to Asia by $0.6/bbl to +$1.50/bbl for Asia.
  • Rising OPEC and non-OPEC supply is expected to outpace demand growth leading to an oil market surplus of 700kb/d in 2025, according to Morgan Stanley cited by Bloomberg.
  • OPEC+ has little margin for reinstating barrels this year with hard choices if they want to preserve the current $70/bbl floor in Brent, according to Harry Tchilinguirian at Onyx.
  • Iran’s observed crude and condensate exports fell to 1.66m b/d in December, Bloomberg said.
  • Iranian crude oil supply is predicted to see a modest decrease of 0.3mb/d to 3.25mb/d by Q2 2025 amid expected tighter sanctions under the Trump administration, Goldman Sachs said.
  • Libya set its Es Sider OSP for Jan at a discount of$1.70/b to Dated Brent, according to Bloomberg.
  • Kazakhstan exported 17.253m mt oil in 2024, up 4% from 2023, KazTransOil said.
  • Asia's crude oil imports showed the first annual decline since 2021 amid weak demand from China and only limited growth from India, according to LSEG data.
  • India has issued a tender seeking private companies to build and operate a 2.5m mt ton SPR at Padur in southern Karnataka state.