Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Holds Onto Gains

Crude markets are holding onto gains and continue to track a weekly net increase with upside from Middle East tensions and Russia energy infrastructure strikes while watching for any indications of future OPEC+ plans ahead of the JMMC meeting next week. Crude time spreads are strengthening towards highs from last week as the front month rallies towards the recent range highs ahead of the holiday tomorrow.

• Brent JUN 24 up 1.3% at 86.54$/bbl
• WTI MAY 24 up 1.6% at 82.68$/bbl
• Saudi Aramco may increase the Arab Light official selling price to Asia in May by $0.1/bbl according to the median estimate of a Bloomberg survey of five refiners.
• A Reuters survey of 46 economists and analysts forecast Brent to average $82.33/bbl in 2024 from a $81.13/bbl average projected in February. The WTI crude expectation was raised from $76.54/bbl last month to $78.09/bbl.
• Global crude supply growth dominated by medium and heavy grades will drive upward pressure on Brent-Dubai differentials in Q3, according to FGE.
• Tightening fundamentals are expected to be the main driver taking oil above $90/bbl according to Standard Chartered with a global inventory draw continuing through Q2.
• A handful of tankers set to pick up oil from Venezuela have been waiting off its coast for months according to Bloomberg vessel tracking.
• Kazakhstan is seeking alternative routes for oil exports to reduce the dependence on the CPC pipeline via Russia, Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev said, cited by Orda.kz.
• Libya plans to export 31.53mbbl, equivalent to 1.05mb/d, of crude in April, according to the loading programme seen by Bloomberg.
• Canadian crude shipments to Los Angeles are rising, highlighting how the new Trans Mountain Pipeline flows may readjust buying patterns.
• The new TMX pipeline is set to open up options for Canadian crude exports from Q2 but Vortexa highlights some issues it may face.