Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Maintains Gains

Crude has held most of its gains with Brent Jun24 trading through key technical resistance of 88.51$/bbl before easing back. Support is driven by improved China demand expectations, supply cuts during Q2 and with rising geopolitical tensions.

• Brent JUN 24 up 1.1% at 88.42$/bbl
• WTI MAY 24 up 1.2% at 84.71$/bbl
• An OPEC+ ministerial panel is unlikely to recommend any oil output policy at its meeting April 3, five OPEC+ sources told Reuters.
• Russian air defences had thwarted an attempted Ukrainian attack on Tatneft’s 360kbpd Taneco oil refinery in the region of Tatarstan on Tuesday morning.
• Pemex is planning to supply less crude over the next few months, to boost domestic gasoline and diesel output ahead of the presidential election on 2 June.
• Mexico’s crude oil exports fell by 35% on the month to 697kbpd in March.
• US oil production is projected to average 13.2mb/d in 2024 according to Kpler suggesting a year-on-year increase of 330kb/d.
• Venezuelan crude and products exports in March stood at 884.935kbpd, the highest level since early 2020, and up from around 617kbpd in February.
• Trans Mountain will finish building the final segment of the Canadian pipeline in April, according to Reuters.
• The latest rally in global oil prices is driven by tighter supplies rather than driven by an uptick in Chinese demand: Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects.
• Russia’s seaborne crude exports in the week to March 31 rose to the highest so far this year according to Bloomberg ship tracking data amid easing storm disruption.
• Iraq’s crude oil exports fell around 7% in March due to pressure to meet their OPEC+ output cuts, according to Bloomberg.