Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Pulls Back

Oil markets are facing further weakness amid sustained demand fears out of China and dollar strength. However, prices have recovered slightly after falling through last week’s low to a Brent low of $83.36/bbl earlier today.

• Brent SEP 24 down 0.9% at 84.1$/bbl
• WTI AUG 24 down 1% at 81.06$/bbl
• The API US oil inventory data is due at 16:30ET ahead of the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report tomorrow.
• The likely return of La Nina climate phenomenon, and the associate shift in global weather patterns and temperature extremes, will bring a new wave of disruption and volatility to key global commodity markets, Platts said.
• China’s crude oil imports showed an annual fall of 11% at 46.45m mt in June, extending the weakness after falling 8.7% on the year in May, OilChem said citing GACC data.
• China’s imports of discounted crude from Iran rose 148kb/d m/m to a record of 1.5mb/d in June, according to Kpler data cited by Bloomberg.
• Russia’s four-week average crude exports fell to their lowest since January, continuing a plunge that has seen them fall 570k b/d since peaking in April, Bloomberg said.
• Caspian CPC blend loadings for August are expected to be around 1.2m b/d, traders with knowledge of the loading programme told Bloomberg.
• The Iraq oil pipeline is being delayed because of remaining tensions between Baghdad and Erbil according to a Bloomberg interview with Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar.
• OIES have maintained a Brent forecast of $85.4/bbl in 2024 and $78.6/bbl in 2025, according to the latest Oil Monthly report, with H2 forecast to average near $87/bbl.