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Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Pulls Back

OIL
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Oil markets are facing further weakness amid sustained demand fears out of China and dollar strength. However, prices have recovered slightly after falling through last week’s low to a Brent low of $83.36/bbl earlier today.

  • Brent SEP 24 down 0.9% at 84.1$/bbl
  • WTI AUG 24 down 1% at 81.06$/bbl
  • The API US oil inventory data is due at 16:30ET ahead of the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report tomorrow.
  • The likely return of La Nina climate phenomenon, and the associate shift in global weather patterns and temperature extremes, will bring a new wave of disruption and volatility to key global commodity markets, Platts said.
  • China’s crude oil imports showed an annual fall of 11% at 46.45m mt in June, extending the weakness after falling 8.7% on the year in May, OilChem said citing GACC data.
  • China’s imports of discounted crude from Iran rose 148kb/d m/m to a record of 1.5mb/d in June, according to Kpler data cited by Bloomberg.
  • Russia’s four-week average crude exports fell to their lowest since January, continuing a plunge that has seen them fall 570k b/d since peaking in April, Bloomberg said.
  • Caspian CPC blend loadings for August are expected to be around 1.2m b/d, traders with knowledge of the loading programme told Bloomberg.
  • The Iraq oil pipeline is being delayed because of remaining tensions between Baghdad and Erbil according to a Bloomberg interview with Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar.
  • OIES have maintained a Brent forecast of $85.4/bbl in 2024 and $78.6/bbl in 2025, according to the latest Oil Monthly report, with H2 forecast to average near $87/bbl.
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Oil markets are facing further weakness amid sustained demand fears out of China and dollar strength. However, prices have recovered slightly after falling through last week’s low to a Brent low of $83.36/bbl earlier today.

  • Brent SEP 24 down 0.9% at 84.1$/bbl
  • WTI AUG 24 down 1% at 81.06$/bbl
  • The API US oil inventory data is due at 16:30ET ahead of the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report tomorrow.
  • The likely return of La Nina climate phenomenon, and the associate shift in global weather patterns and temperature extremes, will bring a new wave of disruption and volatility to key global commodity markets, Platts said.
  • China’s crude oil imports showed an annual fall of 11% at 46.45m mt in June, extending the weakness after falling 8.7% on the year in May, OilChem said citing GACC data.
  • China’s imports of discounted crude from Iran rose 148kb/d m/m to a record of 1.5mb/d in June, according to Kpler data cited by Bloomberg.
  • Russia’s four-week average crude exports fell to their lowest since January, continuing a plunge that has seen them fall 570k b/d since peaking in April, Bloomberg said.
  • Caspian CPC blend loadings for August are expected to be around 1.2m b/d, traders with knowledge of the loading programme told Bloomberg.
  • The Iraq oil pipeline is being delayed because of remaining tensions between Baghdad and Erbil according to a Bloomberg interview with Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar.
  • OIES have maintained a Brent forecast of $85.4/bbl in 2024 and $78.6/bbl in 2025, according to the latest Oil Monthly report, with H2 forecast to average near $87/bbl.