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Free AccessOil Summary at European Close: Crude Rallies
Crude has rallied, having briefly broken through technical resistance levels up to the highest since early November. The move is driven by a supply deficit suggested in the latest IEA monthly report, drone attacks on Russian refineries, and an unexpected draw in US crude stocks.
- Brent MAY 24 up 1.4% at 85.2$/bbl
- WTI APR 24 up 1.7% at 81.1$/bbl
- Red Sea shipping diversions may last a few more months or even longer according to Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of Hapag-Lloyd via Bloomberg.
- OPEC+ cuts are expected to result in a meaningful deficit for most of this year providing support for prices, according to a note from HSBC via Bloomberg.
- The IEA raised its oil demand growth forecast for this year on a more positive outlook for the US as well as bunker demand growth because of Red Sea diversions.
- Morgan Stanely sees oil demand figures coming in better than expected while on a product-by-product basis, China is looking more positive according to its chief commodities strategist, Martijn Rats in an interview with CNBC this week.
- OIES have raised the Brent forecast from $82.1/bbl to $82.9/bbl in 2024 with 2025 at $79.4/bbl due to extended OPEC+ cuts and robust non-OECD demand according to the latest Oil Monthly report.
- Russia may increase crude exports because of lower refinery processing rates according to Tass reports of Russian First Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin.
- The highest bid in the US auction for shares of Venezuela-owned Citgo Petroleum assets was $7.3bn – only covering a third of court approved claims according to Reuters sources.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.