Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Rallies

Crude has rallied, having briefly broken through technical resistance levels up to the highest since early November. The move is driven by a supply deficit suggested in the latest IEA monthly report, drone attacks on Russian refineries, and an unexpected draw in US crude stocks.

• Brent MAY 24 up 1.4% at 85.2$/bbl
• WTI APR 24 up 1.7% at 81.1$/bbl
• Red Sea shipping diversions may last a few more months or even longer according to Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of Hapag-Lloyd via Bloomberg.
• OPEC+ cuts are expected to result in a meaningful deficit for most of this year providing support for prices, according to a note from HSBC via Bloomberg.
• The IEA raised its oil demand growth forecast for this year on a more positive outlook for the US as well as bunker demand growth because of Red Sea diversions.
• Morgan Stanely sees oil demand figures coming in better than expected while on a product-by-product basis, China is looking more positive according to its chief commodities strategist, Martijn Rats in an interview with CNBC this week.
• OIES have raised the Brent forecast from $82.1/bbl to $82.9/bbl in 2024 with 2025 at $79.4/bbl due to extended OPEC+ cuts and robust non-OECD demand according to the latest Oil Monthly report.
• Russia may increase crude exports because of lower refinery processing rates according to Tass reports of Russian First Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin.
• The highest bid in the US auction for shares of Venezuela-owned Citgo Petroleum assets was $7.3bn – only covering a third of court approved claims according to Reuters sources.