Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Sees Late Surge

Crude front month is rebounding from earlier lows of $79.84/bbl to the highest level since Friday, amid a sharp fall in the US Dollar, uncertainty over the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and lower output from Kazakhstan.

• Brent JAN 24 up 2.4% at 81.93$/bbl
• WTI JAN 24 up 2.6% at 76.79$/bbl
• Calendar: The API oil inventory data is due for release today at 16:30 ET.
• The Kremlin said Tuesday there are no plans for a call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman ahead of the latest OPEC+ meeting set for Thursday.
• The likelihood of OPEC+ opting for deeper cuts is “very low” given the scale of existing curbs, according to HSBC. It added there is “no space for bigger cuts” given the high level of spare capacity.
• OPEC will seek to maintain a united front and strict enforcement of their agreement, despite some signs of dissent, Helima Croft, RBC’s Capital Markets global head of commodity strategy said.
• Oil production at Kazakhstan's largest fields has fallen 56%, according to Interfax, due to the ongoing storm in the region.
• Russian seaborne weekly crude oil shipments rose by 370kbpd on the week to 3.24mbpd as of 26 November, while four-week average shipments declined by around 100kbpd on the week to 3.16mbpd, Bloomberg ship tracking data showed.
• Venezuelan production has risen to 850,000 bpd of oil and 4.5Bcf/d of natural gas according to Venezuelan vice minister for hydrocarbons Erick Perez speaking with Argus.
• Canadian oil and gas producers are expected to drill 8.4% more wells in 2024 according to an annual forecast from Canadian Association of Energy Contractors.
• China’s Yulong Petrochemical has received 300,000 tons of crude oil import quotas for 2023, according to JLC and Longzhong, cited by Reuters.
• North Sea Johan Sverdrup crude loadings are expected to fall to 723kbpd in January, down from 755kbpd in January, according to a loading program seen by Bloomberg.