Oil Summary at European Close: Crude Ticks Up Despite On-Day Fall

Crude is falling back today but is within the current three-day range. Oil has struggled for clear direction this week, although WTI is still on track for a 0.8% rise.

• WTI AUG 24 down 0.4% at 81.44$/bbl
• May Core PCE price index 0.083% M/M (0.1% expected).
• The latest Baker Hughes rig count data is due for release at 13:00ET.
• “A tropical depression or storm will likely form east of the Lesser Antilles later today or Saturday. Also, there is a low chance of a tropical depression forming over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and tropical Atlantic,” the National Hurricane Center said via X.
• Saudi may cut OSP’s for Asia for a second month in August following weakness in Middle East benchmark Dubai according to a Reuters survey.
• Russian Urals oil prices for cargoes loading in July for Indian ports are in line with June, according to Reuters sources.
• Iran’s crude/condensate exports accounted for 9% of OPEC’s crude/condensate exports in February 2024 and again in May 2024, the highest share since August 2018 according to Vortexa.
• Venezuela crude production is up to 1mb/d, according to President Nicolas Maduro on state TV cited by Bloomberg.
• It’s hard to say there is no political risk premium priced into oil at present according to Marcus Garvey, Managing Director of Macquarie Group in a CNBC interview this week.
• Oil prices are not likely to change much in H2 2024 with Brent averaging $83.93/bbl in 2024, according to a Reuters poll.