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Oil Summary at European Close: Oil Steady

OIL

Crude has reversed its brief post EIA data rally to move back to rangebound on the day. Strong distillate exports and a dip in total implied fuel demand is likely to be bearish.

  • Brent OCT 24 up 0.2% at 77.35$/bbl
  • WTI OCT 24 up 0% at 73.19$/bbl
  • EIA Weekly US Petroleum Summary - w/w change week ending Aug 16: Crude stocks -4,649 vs Exp -1,968, Crude production +100, SPR stocks +636, Cushing stocks -560
  • Much of oil’s geopolitical risk premium has unwound on hopes of a Gaza ceasefire deal and with no retaliatory strike by Iran so far.
  • Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant claims that Hamas' "Rafah division has been defeated. Over 150 underground tunnels have been destroyed [along the corridor]."
  • The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) office has reported that a commercial ship in the Red Sea has come under attack and is currently not under command (i.e. has lost the ability to sail or steer) after being hit with three projectiles.
  • The gain in U.S. crude oil exports should slow in 2024 after years of strong growth but could see a near term boost, according to Reuters.
  • European crude imports are arriving at their highest pace of the year in August according to Vortexa, reflecting higher summer demand.
  • Goldman Sachs warns that Brent crude could fall below $70/bbl if Chinese demand weakness persists in a recent research note.
  • BP sees limited scope for OPEC+ to boost output amid downside price pressure from increasing supply from the US, Brazil and Guyana according to Bloomberg.
  • MNI COMMODITY WEEKLY: End of Summer Demand Set to Weigh on U.S. Refiners: https://enews.marketnews.com/ct/x/pjJscVPdkO8I6a5hKxh-HA~k1zZ8KXr-kA8x6mUD5GnptIPjO1OcQ
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