Oil Summary at European Close: Supportive Week for Crude

Oil Summary at European Close: Crude markets have performed a solid recovery this week, supported by optimism over fuel demand through 2024 and a recovery from the post-OPEC meet bearish sentiment.

• Brent AUG 24 down 0.3% at 82.52$/bbl
• WTI JUL 24 down 0.4% at 78.34$/bbl
• Gasoil JUL 24 down 0.1% at 762.75$/mt
• WTI-Brent down 0.08$/bbl at -4.56$/bbl
• Prices had dipped last week after a delayed response saw a sell off on OPEC’s plans to try and phase out some production cuts from October.
• The EIA upgraded its oil demand growth estimate slightly in its latest monthly while OPEC stuck to a forecast for relatively strong growth of 2.2 mn bpd.
• Including the IEA, all the forecasters predict a supply deficit until the begging of winter.
• More promising US PPI figures supported crude this week though expectations of only one Fed cut this year keep a cap on optimism.
• Russian, Iraqi and Kazakh communications to compensate for recent overproduction against OPEC+ commitments also proved supportive.
• Nigeria has cleared some of the overhang in its June crude-loading plan as refining activity picks up in Europe for summer according to Reuters.
• China’s independent refiners in Shandong cut run rate to the lowest since April 2022 to 51.88% in the week to June 14, according to OilChem.
• Russian oil sellers are offering their lowest discounts for their oil for Indian buyers than at any point since the invasion of Ukraine according to Reuters sources.