Oil Summary European Close: Crude Stable in Choppy Session

Crude markets are stable on the day in a choppy session with the front month trading between $83.44-84.88/bbl. Crude prices eased back in reaction to a stronger US dollar after the publication of the US employment data. The Brent December contract is on track for a weekly net decline of around $8/bbl amid ongoing economic concerns and possible future interest rate rises.

• Brent DEC 23 up 0% at 84.11$/bbl
• WTI NOV 23 up 0% at 82.32$/bbl
• US Payroll Data: AHE Unrounded - Sep'23: Total AHE: M/M (SA): 0.207% in Sep from 0.237% in Aug, Y/Y (SA): 4.15% in Sep from 4.255% in Aug
• The front month WTI-Brent spread has narrowed this week having reached as high as -3.12$/bbl early today with support from robust US exports and Keystone pipeline issues. This week has seen a drop in operating rates at the Keystone crude pipeline transporting Canadian oil to US refineries, to the US Gulf Coast for export and to Cushing. The spread has narrowed from as low as -3.6$/bbl earlier this month and from -4$/bbl in early September.
• WTI-Brent down -0.12$/bbl at -3.32$/bbl
• The aggregate open interest across all ICE Brent options has increased compared to this time last month with calls interest up to 1.462m and put contracts at 1.164m.
• Goldman Sachs expects Brent to hit $100/bbl by next Spring according to Daan Struyven, head of oil research in an interview with CNBC.
• The current selloff in crude oil futures is overdone, as prices fell too far too quickly, Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh said in a note.
• Rystad forecast peak oil prices at 91$/bbl next year before dropping the next three to four years to as much as $50 primarily due to ample supply.
• The monthly data from Baker Hughes shows the international rig count, excluding US and Canada, fell by 12 in September to 940. The global oil and gas rig counts including US and Canada fell by 28 in the month driven by a -15 decrease from US.