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OIL:  Supply Expectations Sees Oil Down for the Week.

OIL
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  • The International Energy Agency (“IEA”)’s monthly report suggests that global oil markets in 2025 may face over supply as the demand from China continues to decline.
  • China’s demand for oil has declined with the weakening in the domestic economy and the transition away from the reliance on oil.
  • Crude prices are seemingly highly correlated to Chinese demand with both down over 10% in the second half of 2024.
  • Overnight the release of a report from the US government showed gasoline stockpiles have declined to a 10-year (seasonally adjusted) low gave support to prices overnight, which were reacting to the IEA report.   
  • WTI peaked at US$69.30 during the US trading day, only to decline (following the IEA report) to $68.10 before recovering to $68.60 where it is opening in Asia.
  • It trended lower all day to $68.10 despite robust Industrial Production and Retail Sales in China, suggesting the economy is stabilizing.
  • WTI is down -3.25% for the week.
  • Brent too had a similar price action peaking at US$73.22 before declining to $72 before recovering to $72.40 for the Asia open.
  • It has trended lower all day to $71.90 and is on course to finish the week -0.90% lower.
  • In the Middle East it was reported that Israel is focusing on a cease-fire proposal in Lebanon as preparations begin for the new administration in the White House.
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  • The International Energy Agency (“IEA”)’s monthly report suggests that global oil markets in 2025 may face over supply as the demand from China continues to decline.
  • China’s demand for oil has declined with the weakening in the domestic economy and the transition away from the reliance on oil.
  • Crude prices are seemingly highly correlated to Chinese demand with both down over 10% in the second half of 2024.
  • Overnight the release of a report from the US government showed gasoline stockpiles have declined to a 10-year (seasonally adjusted) low gave support to prices overnight, which were reacting to the IEA report.   
  • WTI peaked at US$69.30 during the US trading day, only to decline (following the IEA report) to $68.10 before recovering to $68.60 where it is opening in Asia.
  • It trended lower all day to $68.10 despite robust Industrial Production and Retail Sales in China, suggesting the economy is stabilizing.
  • WTI is down -3.25% for the week.
  • Brent too had a similar price action peaking at US$73.22 before declining to $72 before recovering to $72.40 for the Asia open.
  • It has trended lower all day to $71.90 and is on course to finish the week -0.90% lower.
  • In the Middle East it was reported that Israel is focusing on a cease-fire proposal in Lebanon as preparations begin for the new administration in the White House.