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DOLLAR-CANADA: Oil-tied FX are the poorest performers in G10 so far Monday, with
CAD and NOK at the bottom of the pile. Oil and commodities more generally are
suffering with the risk-averse environment prompted by Trump's trade
sabre-rattling boosting the USD and denting crude materially. WTI crude futures
in particular trade soft, with futures falling well below both the 200- and
50-dma at $60.90 and $60.72 respectively, hitting the lowest levels in one month
in the process. This energy complex weakness has fed through well into CAD, with
USD/CAD on course to break above the C$1.35 mark to target the year's best
levels at C$1.3521. A move north of here opens the 3% Upper Bollinger Band at
C$1.3578 and the upper 1.0% 10-dma envelope at C$1.3587.
-The Canadian calendar is quiet Monday, with focus turning to Ivey PMI due
tomorrow and the April jobs report due Friday. The unemployment rate is expected
unchanged at 5.8% with net change in employment seen rising 15k.
-Despite the downside in WTI crude futures so far Monday, the imminent formation
of a golden cross (50-dma > 200-dma) may provide some support going forward.