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Oil Tumbles On Demand Fears

COMMODITIES
  • Crude oil has tumbled today, with what started out overnight as weakness on Chinese demand fears amidst Shanghai mass Covid testing before the US coming in drove a much sharper decline on demand fears.
  • WTI falls slightly more than Brent, possibly on US domestic oil production seen increasing at a slower pace than initially forecast pace through 2023, with EIA projecting 12.77mbpd vs an initial 12.97mbpd from an estimated 11.11mbpd this year.
  • Tight supply and low inventories supported refined product cracks despite the fall in crude.
  • WTI is -7.5% at $96.23 as it closes in on the bear trigger at $95.10 (Jul 6 low), clearance of which could open $93.45 (Apr 25 low) and beyond. Sliding prices have seen the most active strikes in the Aug;22 contract at $95/bbl and $90/bbl puts.
  • Brent is -6.8% at $99.89, also closing in on the bear trigger at $98.50 (Jul 6/7 low).
  • Gold is -0.44% at $1726.38 on a volatile session around a southbound trend despite a rolling over in UDS strength. It is close to testing support at $1721.7 (Sep 29, 2021 low) clearance of which could open $1706.8 (1.618 proj of the Mar 8-29-Apr18 price swing).
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