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10Y Yield Trading Back Around 4% Level


5/10-year OATei, 10-year OATi

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  • Oil futures are up around 1% on the day despite OPEC+ still planning to go ahead with the 400kbpd increase in January after conflicting reports in the build-up. The next meeting is set for Jan 4.
  • Oil had fallen prior to this announcement and saw an immediate sharp drop before rallying back, supported by general risk-on sentiment upon the US opening.
  • WTI is up 1% on the day at $66.25 but remains vulnerable. The Nov 26 breach of support at $74.76 (Nov 22 low) and the subsequent sharp sell-off confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marked an extension of the current bearish sequence. Next support at $64.43 (Nov 30 low) with resistance at $72.93 (Nov 29 high).
  • Brent is up 0.8% at $69.40 and also remains vulnerable. Attention is on $66.67 next (Aug 24 low) whilst initial firm resistance is seen at $74.35.
  • USD risk tomorrow with non-farm payrolls, at which markets expect another 550k jobs added, knocking another 0.1ppts off the unemployment rate and with solid earnings growth.
  • Against this backdrop, gold is unsurprisingly down -1% at $1764 and is closing in on the base of a bull channel at $1760.4, drawn off the Aug 9 low and an important support.