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OIL
The gain in U.S. crude oil exports should slow in 2024 after years of strong growth but could see a near term boost, according to Reuters.
- U.S. export volumes could see a short term boost with US light sweet crude replacing Libya's Sharara supply amid force majeure on the field and as U.S. refiners start maintenance.
- U.S. oil production growth of 2.3% is expected this year as shale producers limit new production spending with focus on shareholder returns while global oil demand remains sluggish. EIA shows the lowest increase in crude oil exports since 2015 at 3.5% y/y to 4.2mb/d so far in 2024.
- New offshore production due to new project startups is expected to ramp slowly over several years.
- Average exports to China has fallen by more than a third this year, Kpler data showed, partly driven by Canada's TMX startup. Exports to Singapore also fell but increased to India and South Korea.
- U.S. exports to Europe are down about 1% y/y so far in 2024 with buyers sourcing cheaper regional and West African oil.
- The startup of Nigeria's Dangote refinery has however boosted exports of WTI Midland crude.
Source: Reuters
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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