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OIL: US Oil Production Could Drop Amid Low Rig Count

OIL

US oil production could decline about 1mb/d by the second half of 2025 unless rig counts rise, according to Adam Rich at energy investor Vaughan Nelson cited by Bloomberg. 

  • More rigs will be needed to offset declining productivity from existing wells and oil prices closer to $90/bbl may be required for a recovery in the rig count.
  • “We could probably keep the 12-13 million barrel-per-day level for six to nine more months, but if we don’t see rig counts really start moving up here, that’s going to be a big problem.”
  • Baker Hughes data shows the number of US oil rig count has fallen to the lowest level since January 2022. The rig count saw a renewed decline during May down to 492 compared to an April high of 511 and a high of 627 in November 2022.
  • Many US producers are suggesting moderate growth and still prioritizing shareholder returns.

 

 

Source: Baker Hughes / Bloomberg

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