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OIL: US Shale Becoming Archrival of OPEC+: BNEF

OIL
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Breakeven estimates for US shale, OPEC’s archrival, remain very competitive against longer term oil prices of $66/b, BNEF said.

  • Oil prices would need to fall below $56/b on a sustained basis to see a pull-back in US oil production, BNEF added.
  • This leaves little room for OPEC+ to materially increase output. However, geopolitical instability in the Middle East could provide an opening for OPEC+ to raise production, supported by an elevated geopolitical risk premium.
  • For US shale, the price floor is $45/b. Oil prices below $45/b would be untenable, and Eagle Ford and Midland Basin oil production would be uneconomical at that price.

 

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Breakeven estimates for US shale, OPEC’s archrival, remain very competitive against longer term oil prices of $66/b, BNEF said.

  • Oil prices would need to fall below $56/b on a sustained basis to see a pull-back in US oil production, BNEF added.
  • This leaves little room for OPEC+ to materially increase output. However, geopolitical instability in the Middle East could provide an opening for OPEC+ to raise production, supported by an elevated geopolitical risk premium.
  • For US shale, the price floor is $45/b. Oil prices below $45/b would be untenable, and Eagle Ford and Midland Basin oil production would be uneconomical at that price.

 

Keep reading...Show less