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Oil Volatility Could Drop Further With Stability Into 2Q24: BofA

OIL

Energy prices should rebound from their two year slump if Western monetary policy easing occurs and OPEC+ discipline holds according to BofA. Oil markets have outperformed other energy markets on OPEC+ cuts and geopolitical risks.

  • Many factors have come together to stabilize crude oil prices near $80, but volatility may have further room to drop. The recent period of oil price stability could extend into 2Q24, geopolitics permitting.
  • Global crude oil curves are relatively backwardated with an increase in spare production capacity and long dated oil anchored at $70/bbl.
  • OPEC+ were forced to cut oil production repeatedly amid key US policy measures on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, a surge in US shale output, central bank rate hikes and warm weather and more renewables.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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