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Oil Whipsaws As US Gasoline Demand Wins Out

COMMODITIES
  • Crude oil is currently up more than 1% on a day of whipsawing. Bearish price drivers included oil flows via Druzhba and Iraq production coming in just above its OPEC+ quota of 4.580mbpd in Jul at 4.584mbpd (+69k from June). That was before EIA data showed a much larger than expected drawdown in US gasoline stockpiles (-4.978M vs -1.152M) for the biggest weekly drop in 10 months, which seemed to carry more weight than an also large surprise build in crude inventories on a strong build in production and an unexpected fall in crude exports.
  • Focus ahead on global supply and demand balances from OPEC and IEA.
  • In Germany, low Rhine water levels threaten the ceasing of diesel and coal transport, with the marker at Kaub forecast to drop to the critical depth of 40cm early on Aug. 12, and set to continue dropping, to 37cm the following day.
  • WTI is +1.44% at $91.79, pushing back against a doji candle pattern highlighting the possible end of the recent 3-day bounce. Resistance is eyed at $94.67 (20-day EMA) whilst support is seen at $87.01 (Aug 5 low).
  • Brent is +1.07% at $97.34, moving closer to initial resistance eyed at $99.30 (20-day EMA).
  • Gold is -0.25% at $1789.68, down from a post-CPI snap reaction of $1807.93, temporarily clearing trendline resistance at $1794.6 to leaving resistance at $1829.8 (38.2% retracement of Mar 8 – Jul 21 bear leg).
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  • Crude oil is currently up more than 1% on a day of whipsawing. Bearish price drivers included oil flows via Druzhba and Iraq production coming in just above its OPEC+ quota of 4.580mbpd in Jul at 4.584mbpd (+69k from June). That was before EIA data showed a much larger than expected drawdown in US gasoline stockpiles (-4.978M vs -1.152M) for the biggest weekly drop in 10 months, which seemed to carry more weight than an also large surprise build in crude inventories on a strong build in production and an unexpected fall in crude exports.
  • Focus ahead on global supply and demand balances from OPEC and IEA.
  • In Germany, low Rhine water levels threaten the ceasing of diesel and coal transport, with the marker at Kaub forecast to drop to the critical depth of 40cm early on Aug. 12, and set to continue dropping, to 37cm the following day.
  • WTI is +1.44% at $91.79, pushing back against a doji candle pattern highlighting the possible end of the recent 3-day bounce. Resistance is eyed at $94.67 (20-day EMA) whilst support is seen at $87.01 (Aug 5 low).
  • Brent is +1.07% at $97.34, moving closer to initial resistance eyed at $99.30 (20-day EMA).
  • Gold is -0.25% at $1789.68, down from a post-CPI snap reaction of $1807.93, temporarily clearing trendline resistance at $1794.6 to leaving resistance at $1829.8 (38.2% retracement of Mar 8 – Jul 21 bear leg).