On FOMC minutes to be released Thu, CS.........>

FOMC: On FOMC minutes to be released Thu, CS economists expect "to see

discussion on whether interest rates should rise above a "neutral" level,

concerns regarding a flattening yield curve, and the potential risks and

benefits of historically low unemployment." BNP Paribas noted in a recent report

that "Fed rhetoric, both from meetings and participants' communication, has

increasingly centered on shifting towards a neutral policy regime." BNP noted

w/fed funds "currently at 1.75-2.00%, this implies fed funds will be at neutral

levels with just another two hikes. Once rates reach neutral levels, we think

the Fed will find it difficult to press on if activity data begins to wobble;

tighter financial conditions and pressure from the White House would make doing

so even more difficult." BNP concluded they expect the Fed "will likely be

nimble in pausing its hiking cycle." Therefore, BNP see the "Fed getting in

another three hikes, taking fed funds to 2.50-2.75% by March, before it steps

off the gas and pauses its hiking cycle."