On tap for Monday: February retail...>

US TSY FUTURES: On tap for Monday: February retail sales; March final Markit Mfg

Index; March ISM Manufacturing Index; February construction spending and January

business inventories.

- Nomura economists estimate a "modest 0.2% m-o-m increase in core ("control")

retail sales in Feb" after Jan's 1.1%. THough cons conf "remained relatively

optimistic in Feb", Nomura sees some downside risk as some business survey

indicators suggest softer consumer demand in the retail sector." 

- TD Securities economists "look for a minor gain the ISM index as the regional

Fed surveys suggest manufacturing activity is holding up or may have even

recovered in March. Indeed, the average of the regional surveys registered its

first increase in four months to 54.2 in March. That said, across-the-board weak

global manufacturing PMIs increase the risk for a downside surprise."

- Morgan Stanley economists on ISM posit "regional Fed manufacturing surveys

suggest some improvement in March. Our forecast sees the ISM index rising 1.7

points in March to a reading of 55.9, not quite reversing last month's 2.4-point

drop."