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US TSY FUTURES: On tap for Tuesday: April NY Fed Business Leaders Index; Redbook
retail sales; March industrial production and capacity utilization; NAHB home
builder index for April.
- Barclays economists estimate "overall IP will edge up 0.1% m/m in March after
having registered no material change in February. The topline reading is mainly
driven by developments in the manufacturing sector, where we expect production
to inch up 0.1% following February's 0.3% decline."
- Citing subsiding weather factors, Bank of America economists estimate IP to
"increase by a solid 0.3% mom in March after two fairly soft prints in January
and February. This should translate into a 0.1pp increase in the capacity
utilization rate to 79.2%."
- Morgan Stanley economists, on the other hand, "do not expect much improvement
in this category in March, given the drop in manufacturing hours worked, a key
proxy for manufacturing production, in the March employment report."