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AUSSIE-KIWI: On Thursday TD Securities wrote that the outlook for AUD/NZD will
depend on "a macro beta coupled with the local stories. We believe that most of
this story centers on terms of trade, growth differentials, risk appetite and
positioning. For one thing, our China proxy implies a move to NZ%1.07, although
we note it explains roughly half the moves in the cross. In addition, we note
that HFFV probably soaks some of the residuals not captured in the China proxy
indicator. There is probably some overlap in these indicators and yet there is
enough variance to pin it down to a separate market factor. The upshot is that
AUD/NZD HFFV indicates a push higher in the cross. It currently sits at NZ$1.05,
though we look to buy into dips around NZ$1.04 rather than chasing any move
higher. We also note that positioning looks equally short in both AUD and NZD
based on the implied signal of our CTA momentum indicator (model points to a
modestly deeper short in AUD that trades with a touch less of a premium)."