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On Tuesday Barclays recommended........>

AUSSIE BONDS
AUSSIE BONDS: On Tuesday Barclays recommended "paying AUD 1y IRS at 1.56%,
targeting 1.80% with a stop-loss at 1.45% (carry and roll is +8bp per quarter).
Despite the recent improvement in domestic and global data, Australian rates
markets continue to imply about 40bp of cuts over the next year - largely
unchanged from two-weeks ago. Our expectation of an unchanged Fed over the
coming year, versus market pricing of 24bp of cuts, should also support higher
Australian rates given the historically positive relationship." Barclays think
the "case for RBA rate cuts remains incomplete. Econ data have turned more
positive & continued job growth, amid already low interest rates, is likely to
support a recovery in consumption this year. Q1 inflation weakness is likely to
be temporary, and underlying inflation should remain fairly stable. While house
prices have continued to decline, a pickup in auction clearance rates suggests
the market may be finding a base, and the strength of housing's wealth effect in
Australia remains unclear. Recent RBA communication has appropriately emphasized
a data-dependent approach given conflicting domestic activity signals. The
external outlook has also improved in recent months."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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