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GERMAN AUCTION PREVIEW: On Wednesday, Germany re-opens Apr-24 Bobl for E3.0bln.
- HISTORY: The benchmark 5-Yr Bobl was last sold on Mar 20, at an average yield
of -0.32%, Buba cover of 1.45x, and real cover of 1.17x.
- BACKGROUND/RV: The German curve has flattened since the last Bobl auction on
Mar 20, with 2-Yr yields falling 4.4bps, 5-Yr 8.2bps, 10-Yr 9bps, and 15 through
30-Yr by 10.8bps. Looking at the 2s/5s in isolation, there has been a steady
bull flattening over the past six months, going from a 50bps spread to just
under 16bps since October 2018. The Bobl trades 45bps inside comparable EUR
swaps, 3bps up from the March low, but around the level that has most commonly
prevailed since late January. Spreads have been steady around 1-2bps inside
other core (Netherlands) for months. However, Bobl looks increasingly good value
vs semi-core, trading 17.6bps inside equivalent OATs, down from nearly 37bps at
the start of 2019.
- CASH FLOWS: There are E16bln in 0.50% Apr-19 Bobl redemptions scheduled for
this week, which is seen supporting demand for the current on-the-run Bobl.
- TIMING: Results are due shortly after the auction closes at 1030GMT.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.