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Ongoing Downtrend for Factory-Gate Inflation

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY NOV PPI -3.9% M/M (FCST -1.7%); OCT -4.2% M/M

GERMANY NOV PPI +28.2% Y/Y (FCST +31.1%); OCT +34.5% Y/Y

  • Factory-gate inflation recorded a more pronounced decline than anticipated in November. Prices fell by -3.9% m/m and 6.3pp on the annualised print to +28.2% y/y.
  • This is the lowest year-on-year reading since February and a substantial slowdown from the Aug-Sep record peak of +45.8% y/y. Lower energy prices and weak demand conditions are evidently feeding through into easing price pressures.
  • Falling energy prices remain the key downward driver (down 9.6% m/m), however, core PPI also showed continued signs of easing. Ex. energy, annualised PPI slowed for the sixth consecutive month, cooling by 1pp to +12.6% y/y.
  • Higher food prices pushed non-durable goods prices up by +0.2% m/m, whilst intermediate goods prices moderated by -0.7% m/m, helped by lower metal prices.
  • The December manufacturing PMIs suggest continued slowing in PPI into year-end. Aggregate eurozone PPI figures for November are due on Jan 5 and are projected to follow a similar trajectory.

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