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Only March Implied Rate Higher Than Before Powell Spoke

STIR
  • Heading towards tomorrow’s payrolls report (preview here), Fed Funds implied rates have lifted off earlier lows were seen as regional banks came under further pressure before limiting losses.
  • March FOMC cuts are back to 11bps, close to the 10-11bps seen after Chair Powell’s specific pushback (not the most likely case) which in turn were near lows seen following Waller’s remarks last month.
  • March-June rates are the only meetings with implied rates higher than shortly prior to the FOMC announcement (with only March higher since Powell’s presser).
  • Cumulative cuts: 11bp Mar, 35bp May, 64bp Jun and 149bp Dec.

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