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Only USD/KRW Follows USD/JPY Lower

ASIA FX

The initial reaction in USD/Asia pairs was to move lower in sympathy with USD/JPY post the BoJ policy announcement. However, this proved to be short lived, as cross asset headwinds from weaker equities and firmer yields weighed. Only the won is showing a meaningful gain against the USD so far today. Taiwan export order data prints a little later, while tomorrow South Korean first 20-day trade data for December is out.

  • USD/CNH dipped towards 6.9700 post BoJ but is now back near 6.9900, slightly higher for the session. China equities continue to weaken, the CSI 300 off nearly 2%. As expected, the LPRs were left unchanged, while the fixing bias shifted back to a firmer CNY trend.
  • 1 month USD/KRW fell below 1290 after the BoJ before finding support. The pair climbed back to 1300 before renewed selling interest emerged. We last tracked close to 1293. Onshore equities are weaker, the Kospi down nearly 1%, while net equity outflows picked up.
  • USD/TWD spot is down from earlier highs, last around 30.75. The trend in the pair still looks skewed to the upside. Onshore equities have fallen by 1.8% today, while the market expect export orders to show further weakness for the November print (-12.8% forecast against -6.3% prior).
  • USD/MYR is slightly higher, last around 4.4335, +0.10% for the session. The simple 200-day MA is nearby at 4.4377. New PM Anwar will table the 2023 budget by early March next year. He also announced a fresh 2bn MYR in cash aid, while the retail prices of 11 food items will be capped between Dec 23-27.
  • USD/INR is once again close to the top end of its recent range, last around 82.83. Intervention risks will be higher at these levels. USD/IDR is also firmer but is not as close to recent highs as USD/INR. The rupiah last changed hands at 15626, unable to hold sub 15600 from earlier in the session. The risk of higher core yields likely weighing.

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