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OPEC+ Commitments Enough to Avert Q1 Stock Builds: Morgan Stanley

OIL

The results of Thursdays OPEC+ meeting should be enough to prevent stock builds in Q1 2024 and support Brent in the mid-$80s, even with partial compliance Morgan Stanley analysts said.

  • "The impact on our supply/demand balances is less likely than the headline figure suggests," the report said referring to the headline number of 2.2mn bpd.
  • The 1 million b/d extension of Saudi cuts was already part of Morgan Stanley's forecast. "Of the remaining 1.2 million b/d headline cut, we assume that, in the end, only half will eventually be implemented. Hence we have lowered our OPEC+ production forecast for 1Q24 by 0.6 million b/d."
  • Morgan Stanleys Brent outlook remains unchanged at $85/bbl.

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