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OIL: OPEC Holds 2025 Demand Growth Forecast at 1.45mb/d in 2025

OIL
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OPEC has maintained a global oil demand growth forecast at 1.45mb/d in 2025 driven by India and China, according to the latest Monthly Oil Market Report.

  • Global oil demand is expected to rise 1.43mb/d next year in the first detailed assessment of 2026 and surpassing the predicted growth in supplies.
  • Chinese consumption is expected to grow by 270kb/d in 2026, or 1.6% and India 270kb/d, or 4.7%.
  • OPEC had previously cut 2024 growth estimate by 47% in six consecutive monthly downgrades.
  • The non-DoC supply growth forecast is unchanged at 1.1mb/d and also forecast at 1.1mb/d for 2026.
  • The group will likely review plans to raise output from April following a JMMC meeting on Feb. 3 and in early March.
  • Earlier today the IEA revised its global oil surplus lower for 2025 citing a combination of stronger demand and supply risks but still expects global oil inventories to grow by 725kbpd this year.
  • The EIA yesterday cut its demand forecast in 2025 by around 0.2mb/d to 104.1mb/d, suggesting a supply surplus of 0.3mb/d, while 2026 is forecast to see a surplus of 0.7mb/d.
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OPEC has maintained a global oil demand growth forecast at 1.45mb/d in 2025 driven by India and China, according to the latest Monthly Oil Market Report.

  • Global oil demand is expected to rise 1.43mb/d next year in the first detailed assessment of 2026 and surpassing the predicted growth in supplies.
  • Chinese consumption is expected to grow by 270kb/d in 2026, or 1.6% and India 270kb/d, or 4.7%.
  • OPEC had previously cut 2024 growth estimate by 47% in six consecutive monthly downgrades.
  • The non-DoC supply growth forecast is unchanged at 1.1mb/d and also forecast at 1.1mb/d for 2026.
  • The group will likely review plans to raise output from April following a JMMC meeting on Feb. 3 and in early March.
  • Earlier today the IEA revised its global oil surplus lower for 2025 citing a combination of stronger demand and supply risks but still expects global oil inventories to grow by 725kbpd this year.
  • The EIA yesterday cut its demand forecast in 2025 by around 0.2mb/d to 104.1mb/d, suggesting a supply surplus of 0.3mb/d, while 2026 is forecast to see a surplus of 0.7mb/d.