OPEC+ Seen 270kbd Over Target in March: Argus Survey

OPEC+ crude output was again over its target in March with Iraq and Kazakhstan continuing to produce above pledges according to a survey by Argus.

• March production from members subject to targets rose by 70,000 b/d to 34.59mn b/d according to Argus estimates, leaving the group 270,000 b/d above its goal.
• The nine Opec members bound by targets were 400,000 b/d above their combined production pledge in March, while the nine non-Opec members of the alliance were 130,000 b/d below.
• Iraq reduced output by 50,000 b/d in March after burning less crude for power generation, but it was still 180,000 b/d over its 4mn b/d target.
• Kazakhstan oil output was unchanged at 1.59mn b/d in March - 120,000 b/d above target.
• Kuwait and Gabon were also over their quotas.
• “You'd be left with a situation where two, or possibly four or more (!) members are made to cut in excess of their obligations at a time when others are loosening the taps. Getting out of the situation Opec+ has put itself in is not going to be easy” Argus Editor Ben Winkley said via X.