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CANADA
Scotiabank see headline CPI inflation rising 0.2pps to 4.9% Y/Y, the high end of the consensus range with a median of 4.8% Y/Y for tomorrow's release.
  • This is based on 0% M/M NSA inflation, which translates into a ~0.2% M/M SA gain, with base effects adding a couple tenths to the Y/Y inflation rate.
  • The average of the central tendency core measures could tick up again from 2.7% Y/Y. “All 3 measures are [currently] either on-target (common component at 2%) or well above (trimmed mean at 3.4%)”.
  • “It might also not be surprising to see traditional core CPI (ex-food and energy) at 3.1% jump higher and ditto for CPIX at 3.6% that could jump toward 4%”.
  • However, the print is unlikely to capture the main impact from Omicron restrictions and it underweights a major component of current North American inflation. Used car prices, which are up 42% Y/Y, aren’t reliably captured by StatsCan, with Scotiabank estimating that if they were imputed on a similar basis to in the US, headline would be 0.1% M/M and 1.4% Y/Y higher in Dec.

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