MNI BRIEF: ECB Should Be Close To 2% In Next Quarters -Centeno

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI BRIEF: China Nov M1 Decline Narrows, M2 Slows

CHINA YTD NEW LOANS CNY17.1 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY17.5 TRLN: PBOC

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 13

MNI: CANADA OCT WHOLESALE SALES +3.3%; EX-AUTOS +0.5%

MNI: US NOV IMPORT PRICES +0.1%

MNI: CANADA Q3 INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE 79.3%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

OPINION: Scotia See Further Rise In Core CPI

CANADA
Scotiabank see headline CPI inflation rising 0.2pps to 4.9% Y/Y, the high end of the consensus range with a median of 4.8% Y/Y for tomorrow's release.
  • This is based on 0% M/M NSA inflation, which translates into a ~0.2% M/M SA gain, with base effects adding a couple tenths to the Y/Y inflation rate.
  • The average of the central tendency core measures could tick up again from 2.7% Y/Y. “All 3 measures are [currently] either on-target (common component at 2%) or well above (trimmed mean at 3.4%)”.
  • “It might also not be surprising to see traditional core CPI (ex-food and energy) at 3.1% jump higher and ditto for CPIX at 3.6% that could jump toward 4%”.
  • However, the print is unlikely to capture the main impact from Omicron restrictions and it underweights a major component of current North American inflation. Used car prices, which are up 42% Y/Y, aren’t reliably captured by StatsCan, with Scotiabank estimating that if they were imputed on a similar basis to in the US, headline would be 0.1% M/M and 1.4% Y/Y higher in Dec.
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.