MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, September 3

MNI BRIEF: China To Open Dumping Inquiry Over Canada Canola

RPT-MNI INTERVIEW:Govt Spending Limits ECB Easing Room-Wieland

RPT-MNI Policy: PBOC Watching Bond Rally, Starts Stress Tests

RPT-MNI: PBOC Reduces Yuan Support, Wide Volatility Band Ahead

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY471.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: TURKEY AUG CPI +2.47% M/M

MNI: SWISS Q2 GDP +0.7% Q/Q, +1.8% Y/Y

MNI: SWISS AUG CPI +0% M/M, +1.1% Y/Y

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

UK: Week Ahead

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OPINION: Scotia See Further Rise In Core CPI

CANADA
Scotiabank see headline CPI inflation rising 0.2pps to 4.9% Y/Y, the high end of the consensus range with a median of 4.8% Y/Y for tomorrow's release.
  • This is based on 0% M/M NSA inflation, which translates into a ~0.2% M/M SA gain, with base effects adding a couple tenths to the Y/Y inflation rate.
  • The average of the central tendency core measures could tick up again from 2.7% Y/Y. “All 3 measures are [currently] either on-target (common component at 2%) or well above (trimmed mean at 3.4%)”.
  • “It might also not be surprising to see traditional core CPI (ex-food and energy) at 3.1% jump higher and ditto for CPIX at 3.6% that could jump toward 4%”.
  • However, the print is unlikely to capture the main impact from Omicron restrictions and it underweights a major component of current North American inflation. Used car prices, which are up 42% Y/Y, aren’t reliably captured by StatsCan, with Scotiabank estimating that if they were imputed on a similar basis to in the US, headline would be 0.1% M/M and 1.4% Y/Y higher in Dec.
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