Opposition Parties Remain Clearly In Lead Ahead Of May 14 Election

The National poll taken between April 24 and May 3 showed that there is likely to be a large shift in May 14’s election away from governing parties towards the opposition (see link). The Nation Group expects Pheu Thai and Move Forward to win around 300 of the 400 constituency seats. They will need a total of 350 seats across both houses to be able to form government. Advance voting has begun.

• The poll found that Pheu Thai has support of 38.5% while Move Forward has 28%. The party of PM Prayut, United Thai Nation, only has 8.7% and the pro-military PPRP only has 3.7%. The split of the conservative vote between numerous parties is going to make it a lot harder for them to retain government.
• The number who were still undecided is down to 8.6% from early April’s 32%.
• Move Forward’s Pita is the preferred PM with 29.4% but Pheu Thai’s Paetongtarn is not far behind on 27.6%. In the early April poll, Pita was 17pp behind Paetongtarn. Current PM Prayut has 8.9% support.
• Police are currently cracking down on vote buying but pollsters believe in some regions it could affect the result.
• Pheu Thai has made it clear that it will not form a coalition with the pro-junta PPRP after the election. While Move Forward has said that it is ready to work with other opposition parties to form a coalition and is confident that this group would receive the necessary seats to be able to form government (see link).