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Options Continue to Err Bullishly of GBP/USD

GBP
  • This week marks a significant milestone for the UK vaccine rollout as first doses are rolled out to 30-year olds almost exactly six months after the first jab was given in December last year. This leaves almost 60% of the UK population as having had a first dose, almost double that of the European Union.
  • The progress on the vaccine schedule has underpinned the continued improvement in high frequency economic indicators including restaurant bookings, job postings and footfall metrics, which are all at new post-pandemic highs.
  • This is supportive of a solid mid-year rebound for the UK economy, and markets are continuing to price in further solid trade for GBP.
  • Current implied probability of GBP/USD outcomes for end-2021:
GBP/USD at end-2021:Implied Probability (%)Implied Probability at end-Q1 (%)
Above 1.4531.121.1
Above 1.44
36.324.6
Above 1.4341.928.6
Above 1.4247.633.0
Above 1.4153.437.7
Above 1.4058.942.6
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