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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
OPTIONS
- EUR vols gapped higher at the open Monday as the very front-end of the curve now captures the first round of the French legislative elections - 1wk vols were marked higher to 7.7 points, a ~2 point premium over background average vol this year.
- Options struck since Macron's election call have played the downside theme, with strong interest evident in put strikes at 1.0700 and below. Decent demand for exposure at 1.05 and below has built well across the past few weeks, with over €23bln in put notional traded between 1.05 - 1.03 strikes since June 9th (see full chart below).
- EUR/USD remains in a M/T downtrend headed into the results, and a stronger-than-expected showing for the far-left, or far-right will build expectations for protracted political stalemate across the rest of Macron's Presidential term. Such an outcome would add pressure to next support at 1.0668 in EUR/USD, ahead of 1.0601 - the bear trigger.
- Voting booths open Sunday, polls close at 2000CET, and exit polls will be published immediately afterwards. Results to trickle in and then accelerate through the night, almost all seats should be known by the morning of 1 July.
EUR/USD options traded since Macron's election call show clear bias for downside:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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