FREELAND: CANADA WON'T ESCALATE OR BACK DOWN ON US TRADE FIGHT

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI BRIEF: China Nov M1 Decline Narrows, M2 Slows

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 8/13/28/50-Week BTF Auction on Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.125% Jul-29 Gilt Due on Tuesday

MNI: CANADA OCT WHOLESALE SALES +3.3%; EX-AUTOS +0.5%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

OPTIONS: Funding Currencies in the Spotlight Ahead of Jackson Hole

OPTIONS
  • Vol markets isolate JPY, CHF as carrying the most sizeable vol premium tied to Jackson Hole and the Ueda appearance, while local risks in Mexico support MXN and BRL vols into the second half of the week. The vol moves keep break-evens on an overnight straddle comfortably ahead of the YTD average (implying a ~125 pip swing in spot for a Friday expiry) however short of the prevailing levels pre-July BoJ and the last US jobs report.
  • Front-end G10 FX vols have seen solid support headed into the Jackson Hole Policy Symposium, with Powell and Bailey's respective policy speeches drawing focus as well as an appearance in front of Parliament from BoJ's Ueda. This keeps funding currencies in focus given their sensitivity to the Fed policy cycle - for which markets more than price a 25bps cut in September, and 96bps by year-end.
  • Despite the focus on Powell and the proximity to the September Fed meeting, relatively little clarity is expected from the Fed Chair on Friday - he's unlikely to deviate from the script too much - emphasizing data dependence and a meeting-by-meeting approach - however any reference to the envisaged tempo of cuts or the eventual destination for rates would be market-moving. Our full Jackson Hole preview found here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/66056/Aug2024JHPreview.pdf
BulletForeign Exchange Bullets
BulletForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.