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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
USD
- The USD Index is currently on track to record the worst start to a year since 2018, in which the DXY shed 3.25% over the course of January. A move through key support at the 100-dma at 94.65 could cement current weakness, and a move on par with 2018 would put prices at ~92.50 by end-January.
- Options markets using forward-looking volatility measures have endorsed the spell of weakness in 2022 - evident in the decline of a synthetic USD 3m Risk Reversal, which has dropped to its lowest levels since May last year - driven by a relative surge in demand for downside USD hedges.
- The move contrasts with the USD weakness seen into end-2020, which bottomed out and presaged the beginning of the 2021 7.5% rally. The options markets' view of the USD during that time didn't falter, and continued to improve across Q4'20 and Q1'21.
- According to last week's CFTC report, speculators were positioned with the largest net long on the USD Index since 2019 (39k contracts) - suggesting a further unwind of these positions could see additional pressure on the greenback in the coming weeks.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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